The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) conservatively estimates that, by 2005, worldwide electronic, computer-dependent commerce will grow from its current $30 billion annually to approximately $1 trillion every year . 【61】^Growth in electronic commerce is not a straight line trend ― it comes slowly at first, then accelerates rapidly.# For example, an innovation at one Internet site may create a base that leads to the development of many other sites. The OECD timber estimates that, of this commerce,80 percent will be business-to-business, though the retail share will clearly be worth capturing ― 20 percent of $1 trillion is no small figure.
It is easy to forget that the Worldwide Web did not exist before 1991 and was not commercialized until 1994. 【62】^ Nonetheless, although it may take six years to reach sales of $1 trillion, it won’’ t take six more to reach $2 trillion, nor perhaps even two to expand from 2 to 4 trillion dollars.# One reason for this acceleration will be the growth in computer ownership. According to one projection, by 2005,70 percent of American households will have a computer ― a figure that may well be closer to 98 percent because computers will be free to customers who sign up internet service as part of the manufacturer’’s package.
【63】^Electronic commerce will turn the world into one giant shopping mall for products, services. and investments.# One obvious effect will be the creation of geographically mobile capital, but even more importantly, e-commerce will make a global marketplace for labor services, and thus the practical equivalent of worldwide labor mobility. People will be able to live in one nation and earn income in another.
【64】^By 2005,more than half of the average employee’’s working hours in advanced countries( like the United States and the United Kingdom)will be spent at home.# In occupations where physical contact is important ― selling, for example ― businesses will end to locate closer to where employees want to live rather than making them commute. In fact, businesses will have to pay a high premium to attract commuters because labor markets will be tight ― as they already are in America and England and as they may eventually become in continental Europe. 【65】^Employees will be, figuratively speaking, in the driver’’s seat.# As a result, large cities will increasingly be surrounded by full-service communities. The cities will not die, but jobs, entertainment, and the like will move to the suburbs that have been quickly expanding around them.