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One of the founding fathers of the Internet has predicted the end of traditional television. Vint Cerf, who helped to build the Internet while working as a researcher in America, said that television was approaching its" iPod moment". In the same way that people now download their favorite music onto their iPod, he said that viewers would soon be downloading most of favorite programs onto their computers.
"85 percent of ail videos we watch is pre-recorded, so you can set your system to download it all the time," said Mr. Cerf, who is now the vice-president of the Google, the world’s largest search engine. "You’re still going to need live television for certain things-like news, sporting events and emergencies-but increasingly it is going to be almost like the iPod, where you download content to look at later."
Although television on demand has not yet become a mainstream activity in the UK, the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 have ail invested vast sums of money in technology which enables viewers to watch their favorite shows on their computers. But some critics, including some Internet service providers, have warned that the Internet will collapse under the strain of millions of people downloading programs at the same time. Over the next four years, it is thought that the number of videos watched over the Internet will quadruple (成四倍), with people moving from short clips to hour-long programs. Broadband companies claim that the service will cause "traffic jams", which will cost millions of pounds to sort out.
But Mr. Cerf dismissed the warnings as" scare tactics", saying that critics had predicted 20 years ago that the net would collapse when people all around the world started to use it en masse(一起).
"In the intervening 30 years it’s increased a million times. We’re far from exhausting the capacity, "he said. "It’s an understandable worry when they see huge amounts of information being moved around online."
Setting out his vision for the future of the Internet, he said he wanted it to reach as many people as possible. "I want more Internet," he said. "I want every one of the six billion people on the planet to be able to connect to the Internet." What will cause" traffic jams" on the Internet according to Broadband companies