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近年以至今后数年,对中国经济体制改革影响最大的事情,莫过于加入世界贸易组织。特别是近两年的各项改革,几乎无一不是在适应世贸组织的要求,且改革的步伐明显加快,改革也开始越来越深人到计划经济的最核心领域。因而,可以说,中国经济体制在经过了20多年的渐进改革之后,终于开始大步迈向,市场经济的轨道了。
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The recovery, of the US economy during the first quarter of this year has been so spectacular that it is creating a new set of risks for financial markets. The great new risks now facing the US economy center on monetary policy and the oil market. The current federal funds interest rate of only 1.75 percent has clearly become unsustainable in view of the economy’ s resilience. The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 0.25 percentage points during the second quarter and could increase short-term interest rates to at least 3 percent before the autumn--the level they were at before September 11.Such tightening would probably cause refinancing to slump to about $ 300 billion at annual rates late this year, which would eliminate capital gains as a prop for consumer spending. Rising interest rates could also damp the rally likely to occur in the equity market as corporate profits recover. If investment spending fails to revive, the economy’ s annual growth rate could slide back to the 2- 3 percent.The oil price is also a big risk, mainly because the Bush administration appears determined to attack Iraq. The probability of war could easily push the oil price back into the $ 35-- $ 40 a bar rel range for at least a few months. In effect, that would impose a big new tax on consumer spending and corporate profits. The prospect of monetary tightening and a sharp increase in the oil price suggests that late 2002 and early 2003 could be a period of great volatility for the US economy.
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