Science and politics are inextricably linked. At a scientific
conference on climate change held this week in Copenhagen, four environmental
experts announced that sea levels appear to be rising almost twice as rapidly as
had been forecast by the United Nations just two years ago. (46)The warning
is aimed at politicians who will meet in the same city in December to discuss
the same subject and, perhaps, to thrash out an international agreement to
counter it. The reason for the rapid change in the predicted
rise in sea levels is a rapid increase in the information available. (47)In
2007, when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change convened by the UN made
its prediction that sea levels would rise by between 18cm and 59cm by 2100, a
lack of knowledge about how the polar ice caps were behaving was behind much of
the uncertainty. Since then they have been closely monitored, and the
results are disturbing. Both the Greenland and the Antarctic caps have been
melting at an accelerating rate. Indeed, scientists now reckon that sea levels
will rise by between 50era and 100era by 2100, unless action is taken to curb
climate change. (48)Konrad Steffen, a professor of the
University of Colorado, told the conference that this sheet is melting not only
because it is warmer but also because water seeping through its crevices is
breaking it up, whose effect had been neglected in the earlier report. The
impact of the melting ice has been measured by John Church of the Centre for
Australian Weather and Climate Research. He told the conference that satellite
and ground-based systems showed that sea levels have been rising more rapidly
since 1993. He is concerned that more climate change could cause a further
acceleration in this rate. Stefan of the Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research told the conference that, “based on past experience, I
expect that sea-level rise will accelerate as the planet gets hotter.” (49)He
was supported in this view by the fourth expert, Eric Rignot of the University
of California, who called for the world’s leaders to slash the emission of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Advance
negotiations on the UN Climate Change Conference are due to begin in Bonn in
just over a fortnight’s time. The scientists hope that their startling warnings
will change the outcome of that pre-meeting meeting. (50)With much still to
argue over, they hope that a clear scientific lead will both help to narrow the
room for disagreement and galvanize the desire to get a treaty agreed.