问答题

John Reid became home secretary because of a prison scandal. His predecessor, Charles Clarke, was forced to resign in May after admitting that some 1,000 foreign prisoners who ought to have been considered for deportation had been freed. This week Mr. Reid faced a prison crisis of his own, made worse by new figures showing that offenders released early from jail on electronic tags have committed more than 1,000 serious crimes.
In theory, the jails of England and Wales can accommodate just over 80,000 people. By October 6th they were just 210 short of that limit. The obvious remedies—cramming two people into cells built for one, letting more prisoners out on probation and moving convicts far from their families—have already been taken. So, last-ditch measures were put in place this week. Some 500 police cells will be used for prisoners. Foreign convicts’ appeals against deportation will no longer be contested, in order to liberate their beds. Others will be paid to go home.
This is one of history’s less surprising crises. By the late 1990s Home Office statisticians were not only predicting a rapid rise in prisoner numbers, but also erring on the side of pessimism. Eight years ago, when the prison population was just above 65,000, the department predicted that it would rise to 83,000 by 2005. In 2002 the statisticians’ forecasts were also too pessimistic. Yet the politicians still appear to have been caught by surprise.
One reason the prisons are full is that there are more police officers—141,000, compared with 122,000 in 2000. They can now go after crimes that are hard to crack but attract long sentences, such as drug trafficking. The number of people in prison for drug offences has trebled since 1994. And, while the overall crime rate in England and Wales is improving, it may be that some criminals are worse. Cindy Barnett, a London magistrate, reckons the defendants she sees are more violent and have graver drug problems these days. That helps to explain why magistrates sent 27% of robbers straight to prison in 2004—up from just 10% in 1993.
In the past few years, the Home Office has prodded judges and magistrates to punish serious, violent offenders more heavily, while encouraging them to go easier on petty thieves. The former has certainly happened: the number of life sentences has more than doubled since the early 1990s. The latter has not. Populist politicians forgot that judges tend to have fixed ideas about the relative seriousness of offences. Force them to increase sentences for murder, and they will also hand out longer terms to armed robbers.
Finally, there is media pressure. Tabloid newspapers such as the Sun and the Daily Mail hound judges who pass, or even seek to justify, lenient sentences. This week the Sun accused one wig of "living in an ivory tower". Because most people’s experience of the criminal-justice system is rare and intermittent, such coverage strongly influences the public mood. Ivory towers notwithstanding, it also stings judges. Penny Derbyshire, an academic who has been following wigs for several years, says they pore over press coverage. "And many of them have wives who read the Daily Mail," she says.

What are the causes of the crowdedness in prisons