Social Networking A large but
long-in-the-tooth technology company hoping to become a bigger force in online
advertising buys a small start-up in a sector that everybody agrees is the next
big thing. A decade ago, this was Microsoft buying Hotmail--the firm that
established web-based e-mail as a must-have service for internet users, and
promised to drive up page views, and thus advertising inventory, on the software
giant’s websites. This month it was AOL, a struggling web portal (入口网站) that is
part of Time Warner, an old-media giant, buying Bebo, a small but up-and-coming
online social network, for $ 850m. Both deals, in their
respective decades, illustrate a great paradox of the internet in that the
premise underlying them is precisely half right and half wrong. The correct half
is that a next big thing--web-mall then, social networking now--can indeed
quickly become something that consumers expect from their favorite web portal.
The non sequitur(推论，结论) is to assume that the new service will be a
revenue-generating business in its own right. Web-mall has
certainly not become a business. Admittedly, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!, AOL and
other providers of web-mall accounts do place advertisements on their web-mail
offerings, but this is small beer. They offer e-mail--and volumes of free
archival (档案的) storage unimaginable a decade ago--because the service, including
its associated address book, calendar, and other features, is cheap to deliver
and keeps consumers engaged with their brands and websites, making users more
likely to visit affiliated pages where advertising is more effective.
Social networking appears to be similar in this regard. The big internet
and media companies have bid up the implicit valuations of MySpace, Facebook and
others. But that does not mean there is a working revenue model. Sergey Brin,
Google’s co-founder, recently admitted that Google’s "social networking
inventory as a whole" was proving problematic and that the "monetization work we
were doing there didn’t pan out as well as we had hoped". Google has a
contractual agreement with News Corp to place advertisements on its network,
MySpace, and also owns its own network, Orkut. Clearly, Google is not making
money from either. Facebook, now allied to Microsoft, has fared
worse. Its grand attempt to redefine the advertising industry by pioneering a
new approach to social marketing, called Beacon, failed completely. Facebook’s
idea was to inform a user’s friends whenever he bought something at certain
online retailers, by running a small announcement inside the friends’ "news
feeds". In theory, this was to become a new recommendation economy, an
algorithmic (算术的) form of word of mouth. In practice, users rebelled and privacy
watchdogs cried foul. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s founder, admitted in December
that "we simply did a bad job with this release" and apologized.
So it is entirely conceivable that social networking, like web-mail, will
never make oodles of money. That, however, in no way detracts from its enormous
utility. Social networking has made explicit the connections between people, so
that a thriving ecosystem of small programs can exploit this "social graph" to
enable friends to interact via games, greetings, video clips and so
on. But should users really have to visit a specific website to
do this sort of thing "We will look back to 2008 and think that we had to go to
a destination like Facebook or LinkedIn to be social," says Charlene IA at
Forrester Research, a consultancy. Future social networks, she thinks, "will be
anywhere and everywhere we need and want them to be". No more logging on to
Facebook just to see the "news feed" of updates from your friends; instead it
will come straight to your e-mail inbox, RSS reader or instant messenger. No
need to upload photos to Facebook to show them to friends, since those with
privacy permissions in your electronic address book can automatically get
them. The problem with today’s social networks is that they are
often closed to the outside web. The big networks have decided to be "open’
toward independent programmers, to encourage them to write fun new software for
them. But they are reluctant to become equally open towards their users, because
the networks’ lofty valuations depend on maximizing their page views-so they
maintain a tight grip on their users’ information, to ensure that they keep
coming back. As a result, avid internet users often maintain separate accounts
on several social networks, instant-messaging services, photo-sharing and
blogging sites, and usually cannot even send simple messages from one to the
other. They must invite the same friends to each service separately. It is a
drag. Historically, online media tend to start this way. The
early services, such as CompuServe, Prodigy or AOL, began as "walled gardens"
before they opened up to become websites. The early e-mail services could send
messages only within their own walls (rather as Facebook’s messaging does
today). Instant-messaging, too, started closed, but is gradually opening up. In
social networking, this evolution is just beginning. Parts of the industry are
collaborating in a "data portability workgroup" to let people move their friend
lists and other information around the web. Others are pushing Open ID, a plan
to create a single, federated sign-on system that people can use across many
sites. The opening of social networks may now accelerate thanks
to that older next big thing, webmail. As a technology, mall has come to seem
rather old-fashioned. But Google, Yahoo!, Microsoft and other firms are now
discovering that they may already have the ideal infrastructure (基础设施) for
social networking in the form of the address books, in-boxes and calendars of
their users. "E-mail in the wider sense is the most important social network,"
says David Ascher, who manages Thunder-bird, a cutting-edge open-source e-mail
application, for the Mozilla Foundation, which also oversees the popular Firefox
web browser. That is because the extended in-box contains
invaluable and dynamically updated information about human connections. On
Facebook, a social graph notoriously deteriorates after the initial thrill of
finding old friends from school wears off. By contrast, an e-mail account has
access to the entire address book and can infer information from the frequency
and intensity of contact as it occurs. Joe gets e-malls from Jack and Jane, but
opens only Jane’s; Joe has Jane in his calendar tomorrow, and is
instant-messaging with her right now; Joe tagged Jack "work only" in his address
book. Perhaps Joe’s party photos should be visible to Jane, but not
Jack. This kind of social intelligence can be applied across
many services on the open web. Better yet, if there is no pressure to make a
business out of it, it can remain intimate, and discreet. Facebook has an
economic incentive to publish ever more data about its users, says Mr Ascher,
whereas Thunderbird, which is an open-source project, can let users minimise
what they share. Social networking may end up being everywhere, and yet
nowhere. The program aimed at creating a single, federated sign-on system is called ______.