TEXT E Global warming means that
US farms are likely to increase production of soybeans, cotton, sorghum and
oranges during the coming decades, according to a new US government
report. Farmers will also need less irrigation water and more
pesticides because of slightly warmer temperature expected across the
continental United States from carbon emissions, the Environmental Protection
Agency report said. In the document, the Bush administration
endorsed for the first time the widely held view of scientists that US
greenhouse gas emissions will rise significantly over the next two decades due
mostly to human activities. The White House had previously said
there was not enough scientific evidence to blame oil refining, power plants and
automobile emissions for global warming. The administration has rejected
participating in the international Kyoto treaty to reduce greenhouse gases,
saying a less costly and effective approach is to encourage voluntary emission
cuts by industry. Although climate change could threaten US
barrier islands and mountain meadows, the EPA report said most American farmers
had little to worry about. The US has more than 1 billion acres
of farmland, pastures and grazing land. The rising concentration
of carbon dioxide in the soil is beneficial to many crops and should help
continue decades of rising crop yields, the report said. Higher
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the soil and slightly warmer temperature
should benefit crops such as cotton, corn, soybeans, sorghum, barley, sugar
beets and citrus fruits. "In general, northern areas such as the Midwest, West
and Pacific Northwest are projected to show large gains in yields, while
influences on crop yields in other regions vary more widely," the report
said. For example, some scientific studies cited by the report
estimated soybean crop yields could climb by 23 percent to 40 percent, depending
on the specific scenario of rainfall and temperature. Orange crop yields could
soar by 13 percent to 120 percent. However, corn yields would climb by a more
modest 1 percent to 9 percent, the report said. More carbon also
helps the soil hold water and plants grow faster, so that farmers will need less
irrigation water, the EPA report said. However, climate change also means many
growers will need to use more pesticides, the report said without
elaboration. The EPA acknowledged that scientific analyses have
not considered all of the consequences of climate change. on crop pests,
diseases and extreme weather. "Agricultural technology is currently undergoing
rapid change, the future production technologies and practices seem likely to be
able to contain or reduce these impacts," the EPA report said.
Farmers in the Southeast face more uncertainties linked to climate
change. The EPA report said a change in planting dates and
genetically altered crop varieties will be important for the Southeast in case
summer rainfall declines. What kind of attitude does the EPA report hold towards the unfavourable impact of climate change on the future agriculture of America