单项选择题

TEXT D
Two conflicts convinced Western countries that they dared not reduce their forces too drastically. The first was the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990. This came at the height of the happiness at the end of the Cold War and the new era of peace that was expected to follow. By January 1991 it was apparent that attempts to persuade Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to withdraw through a combination of military threats, economic pressure, and diplomatic inducements had failed. American, British, and French forces found themselves using military equipment and concepts designed to deal with the Warsaw Pact in central Europe to defeat a moderate- sized Third World country. This brought home the lesson that in a world in which total war had become too horrific to contemplate even a limited war was no small matter and would demand considerable commitment.
Even so, the Gulf War was a relatively straightforward confrontation. It was against a known enemy over a clear-cut matter of principle and fought by means that played to the West’ s comparative advantages, for example in air power. To defense planners, this was much to be preferred to the considerably more complicated types of conflict where opponents merged easily into their surroundings, and adopted guerrilla warfare rather than open battle.
Prudent defense planners never want to get involved in messy civil wars, while the military dislikes having to get between warring groups. It is usually easier to get in than out of these conflicts. Yet even as troops were returning from the Gulfin the summer of 1991, Yugoslavia was starting to fall apart. By 1992, British and French forces were being deployed in Bosnia, along with contingents from other countries, to try to deliver humanitarian aid and soften the blows of a bitter ethnic conflict. Eventually, in 1995, now joined by the Americans, they began to take a much tougher line and this created the conditions for a political settlement, although not an early withdrawal of outside forces. They were still needed to keep the peace.
The experience of these conflicts illustrates some of the difficulties now faced by defense planners. They must prepare for a wide range of operations, from set-piece battles to vicious inter-communal skirmishes: Even though they may hope that total wars are things of the past for the major industrialized countries, limited wars might still require the sort of capabilities once assumed to be relevant only to total wars. Limited wars also come in all shapes and sizes. In 1982 the Falklands War was won through achieving naval superiority followed by an amphibious landing, while in 1991 Kuwait was liberated through air supremacy followed by a heavy armored advance. The first stage of the Gulf crisis involved a naval blockade -- the last stage involved light forces protecting Kurds. Bosnia involved a hybrid force of infantry geared to a low-intensity conflict supported by ak power conducting a high-intensity campaign. Future conflicts might involve direct attacks on environmental targets or attempts to exploit the West’s growing dependence on information technology. Terrorism and international criminal organizations are now often presented as the most serious threats to Western societies.
According to the article, in the future which kind of warfare will be the main war form